For this project we will use the historic, county level data which is stored as an updating CSV at this URL:

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-counties.csv

My code for this project can be found in my repository here.

Question 1: Which Counties in California are Safe?

5 California Counties with Most Cumulative COVID Cases
Date County State FIPS Total Cases Total Deaths
2020-09-07 Los Angeles California 06037 248821 6030
2020-09-07 Riverside California 06065 53987 1067
2020-09-07 Orange California 06059 50864 1053
2020-09-07 San Bernardino California 06071 49691 765
2020-09-07 San Diego California 06073 40715 707
5 California Counties with Most New Daily COVID Cases
Date County State FIPS Total Cases Total Deaths New Cases
2020-09-07 Los Angeles California 06037 248821 6030 487
2020-09-07 Sacramento California 06067 19345 332 391
2020-09-07 Alameda California 06001 19371 300 219
2020-09-07 Contra Costa California 06013 14712 187 185
2020-09-07 Fresno California 06019 26471 312 146
5 California Counties With the Most COVID Cases Per Capita
Date County State FIPS Cases Deaths Population Cases Per Capita
2020-09-07 Imperial California 06025 11041 295 181215 0.0609276
2020-09-07 Kings California 06031 6847 76 152940 0.0447692
2020-09-07 Kern California 06029 30179 296 900202 0.0335247
2020-09-07 Tulare California 06107 14677 243 466195 0.0314825
2020-09-07 Merced California 06047 8327 120 277680 0.0299878
5 California Counties With the Most New Daily COVID Cases Per Capita
Date County State FIPS Cases Deaths Population New Daily Cases New Daily Cases Per Capita
2020-09-07 Kings California 06031 6847 76 152940 59 0.0003858
2020-09-07 Sacramento California 06067 19345 332 1552058 391 0.0002519
2020-09-07 Butte California 06007 2446 23 219186 40 0.0001825
2020-09-07 Contra Costa California 06013 14712 187 1153526 185 0.0001604
2020-09-07 Fresno California 06019 26471 312 999101 146 0.0001461

Results

Total Number of Cases Per California County
Date County State FIPS Total Cases Total Deaths
2020-09-07 Los Angeles California 06037 248821 6030
2020-09-07 Riverside California 06065 53987 1067
2020-09-07 Orange California 06059 50864 1053
2020-09-07 San Bernardino California 06071 49691 765
2020-09-07 San Diego California 06073 40715 707
2020-09-07 Kern California 06029 30179 296
2020-09-07 Fresno California 06019 26471 312
2020-09-07 Alameda California 06001 19371 300
2020-09-07 Sacramento California 06067 19345 332
2020-09-07 Santa Clara California 06085 18717 261
2020-09-07 San Joaquin California 06077 18558 368
2020-09-07 Stanislaus California 06099 15441 290
2020-09-07 Contra Costa California 06013 14712 187
2020-09-07 Tulare California 06107 14677 243
2020-09-07 Ventura California 06111 11315 118
2020-09-07 Imperial California 06025 11041 295
2020-09-07 San Francisco California 06075 9982 86
2020-09-07 Monterey California 06053 8629 59
2020-09-07 San Mateo California 06081 8617 135
2020-09-07 Santa Barbara California 06083 8434 97
2020-09-07 Merced California 06047 8327 120
2020-09-07 Kings California 06031 6847 76
2020-09-07 Sonoma California 06097 6360 93
2020-09-07 Marin California 06041 6355 96
2020-09-07 Solano California 06095 5676 48
2020-09-07 Madera California 06039 3953 58
2020-09-07 Placer California 06061 3182 36
2020-09-07 San Luis Obispo California 06079 3101 22
2020-09-07 Yolo California 06113 2564 53
2020-09-07 Butte California 06007 2446 23
2020-09-07 Santa Cruz California 06087 1931 7
2020-09-07 Napa California 06055 1502 13
2020-09-07 Sutter California 06101 1465 10
2020-09-07 San Benito California 06069 1197 9
2020-09-07 El Dorado California 06017 1008 2
2020-09-07 Yuba California 06115 994 6
2020-09-07 Mendocino California 06045 773 17
2020-09-07 Lassen California 06035 720 0
2020-09-07 Shasta California 06089 581 12
2020-09-07 Colusa California 06011 475 6
2020-09-07 Glenn California 06021 474 3
2020-09-07 Nevada California 06057 467 5
2020-09-07 Tehama California 06103 455 1
2020-09-07 Humboldt California 06023 409 4
2020-09-07 Lake California 06033 362 5
2020-09-07 Amador California 06005 274 15
2020-09-07 Calaveras California 06009 273 2
2020-09-07 Tuolumne California 06109 194 2
2020-09-07 Inyo California 06027 169 13
2020-09-07 Mono California 06051 162 2
2020-09-07 Siskiyou California 06093 144 0
2020-09-07 Del Norte California 06015 124 1
2020-09-07 Mariposa California 06043 74 2
2020-09-07 Plumas California 06063 42 0
2020-09-07 Modoc California 06049 20 0
2020-09-07 Trinity California 06105 14 0
2020-09-07 Sierra California 06091 6 0
2020-09-07 Alpine California 06003 2 0
Total New Cases In Last 14 Days Per California County
County Total New Cases
Los Angeles 15044
Orange 4222
San Bernardino 4025
San Diego 3658
Fresno 2853
Riverside 2787
Sacramento 2723
Santa Clara 2411
Alameda 2075
San Joaquin 1993
Stanislaus 1920
Kern 1659
Contra Costa 1589
Monterey 1236
Tulare 1068
Ventura 1054
Sonoma 1009
San Francisco 998
Kings 870
San Mateo 829
Butte 747
Merced 637
Santa Barbara 565
Imperial 555
Madera 444
Solano 440
Marin 390
Placer 349
San Luis Obispo 332
Yolo 309
Santa Cruz 233
San Benito 210
Sutter 153
Napa 136
Mendocino 120
Yuba 111
El Dorado 76
Tehama 67
Lake 60
Glenn 53
Calaveras 50
Humboldt 49
Amador 48
Colusa 46
Nevada 43
Shasta 28
Inyo 25
Siskiyou 19
Modoc 15
Tuolumne 15
Lassen 6
Plumas 5
Mariposa 4
Del Norte 3
Trinity 3
Alpine 0
Mono 0
Sierra 0
List of Safe Counties
County New Cases Per 100,000 People
Alpine 0.00000
Mono 0.00000
Sierra 0.00000
Del Norte 10.78671
Shasta 15.54865
Lassen 19.62516
Mariposa 23.25176
Trinity 24.42002
Plumas 26.58585
Tuolumne 27.53405
Humboldt 36.14689
El Dorado 39.41030
Nevada 43.10561
Siskiyou 43.63904
Santa Cruz 85.28145
Placer 87.61602
Lake 93.18796
Solano 98.29261
Napa 98.73388

As of 9/7/2020, there are a total of 19 “safe” counties within the state of California that comply to the California Department of Public Health’s criteria of having less than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents over the past 14 days.

Question 2: What Are The Impacts of Scale on Data Interpretation?

Scaling by population had a huge influence on the analysis of the data. If we look at the first graph, it appears that out of the four states, Louisiana has had the least number of new cases as well as the lowest seven day average. While this may be the case, the first graph does not show the entire story. If we look at the second graph it is clear that Louisiana has had the most new daily cases with respect to its population size. The first graph makes Louisiana look the best out of the four states while the second graph makes them look the worst.

Question 3: How Does the Weighted Mean Center of COVID-19 With Respect to Daily Cumulative Cases Move Over Time?

Weighted Mean Center of COVID-19
Date Longitude Latitude
2020-01-21 -121.71707 48.04616
2020-01-22 -121.71707 48.04616
2020-01-23 -121.71707 48.04616
2020-01-24 -104.76683 44.94380
2020-01-25 -109.09942 41.19636
2020-01-26 -111.60366 38.24914
2020-01-27 -111.60366 38.24914
2020-01-28 -111.60366 38.24914
2020-01-29 -111.60366 38.24914
2020-01-30 -107.63915 38.84786
2020-01-31 -109.64744 38.61689
2020-02-01 -104.82632 39.08077
2020-02-02 -109.56226 38.67105
2020-02-03 -109.56226 38.67105
2020-02-04 -109.56226 38.67105
2020-02-05 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-06 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-07 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-08 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-09 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-10 -108.56428 38.57552
2020-02-11 -108.56428 38.57552
2020-02-12 -107.84690 37.92372
2020-02-13 -107.22516 37.35883
2020-02-14 -107.22516 37.35883
2020-02-15 -107.22516 37.35883
2020-02-16 -107.22516 37.35883
2020-02-17 -102.79544 38.93337
2020-02-18 -102.79544 38.93337
2020-02-19 -102.79544 38.93337
2020-02-20 -103.33011 39.08625
2020-02-21 -103.60991 38.42267
2020-02-22 -103.60991 38.42267
2020-02-23 -103.60991 38.42267
2020-02-24 -104.87364 38.07401
2020-02-25 -104.83642 38.20319
2020-02-26 -109.12713 38.23063
2020-02-27 -109.12713 38.23063
2020-02-28 -109.76143 38.48641
2020-02-29 -110.13587 38.90233
2020-03-01 -111.28243 39.34318
2020-03-02 -110.84800 39.73677
2020-03-03 -111.41056 39.99539
2020-03-04 -110.43084 40.45149
2020-03-05 -109.57127 40.88431
2020-03-06 -105.91102 40.51154
2020-03-07 -103.17446 40.62660
2020-03-08 -102.16590 40.81953
2020-03-09 -101.69395 40.71879
2020-03-10 -100.85471 41.20194
2020-03-11 -100.69147 41.14936
2020-03-12 -100.11315 41.04100
2020-03-13 -99.49278 40.66961
2020-03-14 -98.73068 40.51182
2020-03-15 -97.82688 40.12994
2020-03-16 -97.42345 40.02369
2020-03-17 -95.95321 39.81699
2020-03-18 -94.29335 39.50454
2020-03-19 -92.29172 39.46669
2020-03-20 -90.91587 39.28905
2020-03-21 -89.69085 39.24665
2020-03-22 -88.32427 39.31976
2020-03-23 -87.48503 39.32965
2020-03-24 -86.97769 39.31525
2020-03-25 -86.53779 39.19922
2020-03-26 -86.39417 39.17485
2020-03-27 -86.23480 39.14636
2020-03-28 -85.86856 39.11780
2020-03-29 -85.63779 39.12091
2020-03-30 -85.53937 39.09708
2020-03-31 -85.33641 38.97836
2020-04-01 -85.30439 38.94539
2020-04-02 -85.26500 38.83303
2020-04-03 -85.04924 38.82506
2020-04-04 -84.79665 38.80227
2020-04-05 -84.78927 38.83075
2020-04-06 -84.63674 38.78982
2020-04-07 -84.52521 38.76206
2020-04-08 -84.40693 38.77987
2020-04-09 -84.31782 38.77420
2020-04-10 -84.21198 38.78892
2020-04-11 -84.13272 38.80044
2020-04-12 -84.06709 38.82037
2020-04-13 -84.03929 38.81321
2020-04-14 -84.00306 38.82671
2020-04-15 -83.99264 38.83208
2020-04-16 -83.91224 38.84985
2020-04-17 -83.89523 38.84184
2020-04-18 -83.89550 38.85712
2020-04-19 -83.83987 38.87219
2020-04-20 -83.88741 38.87175
2020-04-21 -83.93475 38.86432
2020-04-22 -83.95214 38.87463
2020-04-23 -83.97393 38.87180
2020-04-24 -83.95712 38.89880
2020-04-25 -83.93390 38.93205
2020-04-26 -83.92655 38.94241
2020-04-27 -83.97650 38.94332
2020-04-28 -84.00460 38.94501
2020-04-29 -84.08575 38.94989
2020-04-30 -84.13160 38.95638
2020-05-01 -84.18640 38.95347
2020-05-02 -84.23219 38.95375
2020-05-03 -84.28582 38.96401
2020-05-04 -84.33495 38.95896
2020-05-05 -84.40238 38.92136
2020-05-06 -84.49105 38.92149
2020-05-07 -84.54188 38.92025
2020-05-08 -84.62484 38.92164
2020-05-09 -84.69268 38.91379
2020-05-10 -84.71566 38.90964
2020-05-11 -84.75163 38.90934
2020-05-12 -84.82296 38.90157
2020-05-13 -84.89074 38.88775
2020-05-14 -84.94910 38.88063
2020-05-15 -85.02661 38.87012
2020-05-16 -85.07308 38.86725
2020-05-17 -85.10450 38.86273
2020-05-18 -85.13916 38.85909
2020-05-19 -85.19008 38.84809
2020-05-20 -85.23797 38.84383
2020-05-21 -85.29295 38.82372
2020-05-22 -85.35326 38.81691
2020-05-23 -85.40965 38.80781
2020-05-24 -85.45258 38.80584
2020-05-25 -85.49368 38.79302
2020-05-26 -85.56505 38.77641
2020-05-27 -85.62270 38.76263
2020-05-28 -85.67532 38.74876
2020-05-29 -85.74957 38.73001
2020-05-30 -85.82994 38.71051
2020-05-31 -85.90278 38.69407
2020-06-01 -85.92970 38.68781
2020-06-02 -86.00964 38.66883
2020-06-03 -86.07608 38.64680
2020-06-04 -86.13866 38.61866
2020-06-05 -86.24538 38.60279
2020-06-06 -86.31376 38.57582
2020-06-07 -86.38982 38.55560
2020-06-08 -86.45158 38.53861
2020-06-09 -86.52378 38.51206
2020-06-10 -86.60814 38.47882
2020-06-11 -86.70057 38.44728
2020-06-12 -86.79685 38.40956
2020-06-13 -86.87987 38.36810
2020-06-14 -86.93800 38.33864
2020-06-15 -87.01250 38.30984
2020-06-16 -87.12280 38.26265
2020-06-17 -87.23488 38.21978
2020-06-18 -87.34223 38.17932
2020-06-19 -87.45952 38.12521
2020-06-20 -87.57460 38.07124
2020-06-21 -87.67676 38.03080
2020-06-22 -87.81018 37.98310
2020-06-23 -87.96174 37.92583
2020-06-24 -88.07434 37.86132
2020-06-25 -88.19209 37.80761
2020-06-26 -88.31343 37.73302
2020-06-27 -88.40876 37.66025
2020-06-28 -88.51743 37.59637
2020-06-29 -88.63148 37.54723
2020-06-30 -88.79173 37.47802
2020-07-01 -88.94374 37.41150
2020-07-02 -89.07316 37.33764
2020-07-03 -89.19567 37.26396
2020-07-04 -89.30371 37.19489
2020-07-05 -89.39383 37.13904
2020-07-06 -89.50035 37.08929
2020-07-07 -89.64402 37.02953
2020-07-08 -89.75719 36.96627
2020-07-09 -89.86425 36.90707
2020-07-10 -89.96072 36.84135
2020-07-11 -90.04464 36.78573
2020-07-12 -90.10523 36.72498
2020-07-13 -90.18223 36.67030
2020-07-14 -90.29323 36.61785
2020-07-15 -90.37732 36.56784
2020-07-16 -90.47693 36.50109
2020-07-17 -90.56798 36.45530
2020-07-18 -90.63224 36.41525
2020-07-19 -90.68733 36.36785
2020-07-20 -90.75275 36.33337
2020-07-21 -90.83128 36.29740
2020-07-22 -90.91640 36.26040
2020-07-23 -90.98478 36.22447
2020-07-24 -91.03980 36.19220
2020-07-25 -91.09693 36.15827
2020-07-26 -91.12194 36.13699
2020-07-27 -91.16325 36.11602
2020-07-28 -91.20823 36.08870
2020-07-29 -91.26810 36.06706
2020-07-30 -91.30730 36.03884
2020-07-31 -91.35065 36.01550
2020-08-01 -91.37937 35.99670
2020-08-02 -91.40680 35.97800
2020-08-03 -91.44365 35.96431
2020-08-04 -91.46770 35.94942
2020-08-05 -91.49429 35.93786
2020-08-06 -91.53057 35.92448
2020-08-07 -91.55571 35.91043
2020-08-08 -91.57756 35.89692
2020-08-09 -91.60357 35.88554
2020-08-10 -91.66135 35.87963
2020-08-11 -91.71296 35.86905
2020-08-12 -91.74024 35.85422
2020-08-13 -91.77599 35.84938
2020-08-14 -91.81796 35.84021
2020-08-15 -91.85061 35.83187
2020-08-16 -91.88405 35.82716
2020-08-17 -91.91175 35.82599
2020-08-18 -91.93046 35.81727
2020-08-19 -91.94295 35.81681
2020-08-20 -91.96393 35.81501
2020-08-21 -91.98203 35.81151
2020-08-22 -91.99406 35.80988
2020-08-23 -92.00639 35.80887
2020-08-24 -92.02361 35.80887
2020-08-25 -92.04721 35.80902
2020-08-26 -92.05822 35.80894
2020-08-27 -92.07024 35.81367
2020-08-28 -92.08175 35.81639
2020-08-29 -92.08399 35.81809
2020-08-30 -92.09208 35.81954
2020-08-31 -92.10731 35.82412
2020-09-01 -92.10158 35.81818
2020-09-02 -92.11467 35.82120
2020-09-03 -92.15161 35.81631
2020-09-04 -92.15509 35.82958
2020-09-05 -92.15835 35.83312
2020-09-06 -92.16561 35.83573
2020-09-07 -92.16187 35.84008

In order to describe the movement of the COVID-19 weighted mean throughout the USA over 2020, we first need to understand what a weighted mean center is. A weighted mean center is the average X and Y coordinate for a series of points weighted by some other variable. In this specific case, the weighted variable is the daily cumulative cases per county. From the graph, we can see that the weighted mean center moves from left to right until about May, when it starts to move back in the other direction. In theory, this makes sense for various reasons. When looking at the mean center of COVID-19 without the weighting, it is correct to think that the centers would be clustered toward the middle of the USA due to the fact that the majority of cases are split between the two ends of the country in California, Florida, and New York. Once we take into account the weighting, the movement of the centers begins to take shape. Up until mid to late April, New York was peaking in terms of its daily cases, thus explaining the rightward movement of the mean centers until about May. Since then, California’s daily cases have spiked significantly in counties such as Los Angeles, Riverside, and Orange, thus explaining the leftward movement post-May. It will be interesting to continue to see the movement of the weighted mean center of the virus as California and Florida continue to rack up cases.